Mayonnaise War
Who wins the Duke's Mayo Kickoff?
What can you tell us about Appalachian State?
App State is looking for a way back up to the top of the mountain. In 2023, they went 9-5, with a six point loss to UNC in 2OT, a three point loss to Wyoming, and a three point loss to Coastal. Last season, the Mountaineers finished 5-7, only their sixth losing season since 1981, and just their third in the last three decades. After opening 2-2, Hurricane Helene forced a cancellation against Liberty, and the devastation in western North Carolina impacted the area in a way that couldn’t have been foreseen. This setback understandably affected the Mountaineers’ performance down the stretch, going just 3-4. Despite the circumstances, this dip in performance was enough to convince the powers that be in Boone to part ways with Shawn Clark, who had amassed a 40-24 record at his Alma mater. In comes Dowell Loggains, who served as the Cocks’ offensive coordinator in 2024, leading an offense that ranked third best in the SEC in rushing. He’ll call the offense himself. He was an NFL offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach from 2005 to 2020. At one time, he was named the worst playcaller in the NFL. New defensive coordinator DJ Smith rounds out the top staff. He has been Co-DC at Mizzou for the last 3 seasons.
If the Mountaineers want a way back to the top of the mountain, they are certainly scheduling the correct way. App State almost certainly has the easiest schedule in the Sun Belt and one of the easiest schedules in FBS. They don’t play a P4 team all season. (Sorry, Oregon State.) Besides that, their remaining nonconference slate consists of Charlotte, Boise State, and Lindenwood, who will be entering their third season as an FCS team. Despite that, they’re projected as middle-tier in the SBC, anywhere from third to fifth in the East, depending on whatever preview magazine you subscribe to.
Offense
From last season to this season, they lose their starting quarterback, top running back, top three wide receivers and four starting offensive linemen. The staff will be hoping to improve on 25.6 points per game. Loggains is looking for immediate improvement through the portal. Of the 16 players to join the team in January, 10 were on the offensive side of the ball. I expect this group to lean on the run early on, due to the fact that they’ll be relying on a quarterback who hasn’t established themselves as a leader. Whoever it is, the majority of the receiver room is young, new to the team, or both, and the offensive line is being built from scratch.
In 2023, Joey Aguilar passed for 3,757 yards, achieving a 63.8% completion rate, a 33-10 TD/INT ratio and tacked on 245 rush yards. He regressed in 2024, only throwing for 3,003 yards with a 55.8% completion rate and a 23-14 ratio. Aguilar is now gone to Tennessee, so in come AJ Swann and JJ Kohl to join Billy Wiles, already on the roster. AJ Swann has since been announced as the starter. He has P4 experience but this will be his first chance to run a team for an entire season. He started 12 of his 15 appearances in two seasons at Vanderbilt, throwing for 2731 yards and 22 TDs before moving on to LSU to sit the bench for *THE NUSS.* We’ll see what kind of production Loggains can squeeze out of Swann after helping develop LaNorris Sanders at South Carolina. Kanye Roberts is the only running back still on the roster from last year’s squad. Unfortunately, he’s been sidelined before the season starts with an ACL tear. Without him, I’m sure it’ll be running back by committee. That will most likely be headed up by Rashod Dubinion, the senior from Arkansas, who rushed for 888 yards over three seasons. There’s also redshirt sophomore Khalifa Keith from Tennessee, who appeared in 16 games for the Volunteers but only 124 yards to show for it. Jaylon Calhoun, Khamani Alexander, Jaquari Lewis, and Max Guest fill out that room. Early on, I expect Loggains will lean on this group to get his quarterback comfortable. Another skill position, another room that will look completely different. Gone is Kaedin Robinson, their #1 wide receiver last two seasons. He’s off to sunny Los Angeles to join UCLA’s squad. Last season, he racked up 840 yards, 15.4 yds/catch. Makai Jackson, who was third-team All-Sun Belt last season, joins Cignetti at Indiana, and their third-leading receiver, Christian Horn, has graduated from the program. Their top tight end, Eli Wilson, signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cleveland Browns. Dalton Strowman is the only returner out of the top five receiving targets. He’s a redshirt senior who started in two games last season. Experience is not something this group has in spades. Of the fourteen wide receivers currently on the roster, ten are underclassmen, and over a third of the group were not wearing black and yellow a year ago. In the trenches, starting center Hollifield, right tackle Shrader, left guard Langlo, and left tackle Samuel all depart. Only Jayden Ramsey, right guard last season, remains. They bring in six new faces, including two starters at the FCS level, but only have a combined 22 starts along the line coming into their game against the 49ers.
Defense
On the defensive side of the ball, the Mountaineers get five starters back. I think they’ll be bigger up front and faster in the back than they were last season, due to both the pieces they brought in along the line, and a scheme change from a 3-4 to the 4-2-5. Their defense dipped just as much as their offense last season, allowing 32.9 pts/game, which was the third worst in the SBC. Look for the defense of App State's past. Unfortunately, the defensive front fared worse than its offensive counterpart. Along the defensive line, they lose defensive end Michael Fletcher, nose tackle Joshua Donald, defensive end Santana Hopper, and an additional defensive tackle, Montez Kelly. Shawn Collins returns after appearing in eleven games last season, starting twice. Zero starters return, but they can only improve and should be bigger in the trenches. Last season, running a 3-4, they had 14 defensive linemen on the roster. Now, switching to a 4-2-5, they’ve bolstered the defensive line and have a total of twenty-one defensive linemen. Comparing the current fourteen heaviest linemen to all of the positions from last season, they’re 12-13 pounds heavier per player and over an inch taller. According to Ourlads, nearly all of the second and third stringers will be comprised of transfers. The starting lineup will comprise End Shawn Collins, previously mentioned, redshirt junior Nick Campbell, and Rondo Porter, who followed Loggains from South Carolina, in the interior, and the other end will be held up by Thomas Davis, moving forward to end from OLB. Speaking of linebackers, the Mountaineers lose their top tackler, Brendan Harrington. Returning RS Senior Kye Arnholt will be asked to lead a unit that could be on par with last year’s even without last year’s pieces. Incoming Mizzou transfer Brayshawn Littlejohn will be an immediate contributor, appearing in 8 games last season for the Tigers. Since 2015, App State has recorded 143 interceptions, to what, like 15 a year? I’m a Clemson grad, so I can only count acres and cows, but snagging only 4 last season certainly disappoints. Jason Chambers, a cornerback who also happened to be the team’s fifth-best tackler, is gone, along with safety Ronald Clarke (seventh-best solo tackler, but who's counting?) and Seth Robertson, a senior. A big loss, especially in the switch from a 3-4 to a 4-2-5, will be Avarion Cole, who started five games in a hybrid LB/DB position. App will lean on Ethan Johnson, a senior cornerback, who’s started in 26 games over his career, along with safety Zyeir Gamble, to hold over the back end.
All right, thanks for the graduate thesis on their roster. How will the two teams stack up on Friday?
First, a little context:
First, the bad news: App State is 3-0 all-time versus Charlotte by a combined score of 136-70. History is not on the 49ers’ side.
The good news? Silver lining? Glimmer of hope? App is 0-3 versus the spread in week 1, the last three seasons. In 2022, North Carolina traveled to Boone, and App was favored by 1.5 points. North Carolina would go on to win that game 63-61. (I had completely forgotten this game had existed. I saw the score and typed “football” into the end of the search bar, thinking google had provided me a basketball score. App scored FORTY POINTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.) In 2023, App hosted Gardner-Webb and won 45-24, failing to cover the spread by three points. Last season was the same situation. App State is a big favorite at home, but can’t quite cover the large spread, failing to beat ETSU by 33.5. (A measly 28-point win, can you believe it?)
The Mountaineers are also on a 0-7 slide against the spread as a road favorite in conference games. Now, I’m aware that this is not a conference game, but App State is ‘on the road,’ at least in the literal sense, traveling to Bank of America Stadium. It also suggests to me that the team doesn’t travel well and they have a difficult time finding the right mindset on the road. Taking these items into context, what does that give us? Again, I don’t know, I just count cows!
Game Prediction
Off the bat, I expect a low-scoring affair. Both Charlotte and App are welcoming new coaching staff, starting quarterbacks, and nearly flipped rosters. Albin’s motto, TFC (Turnovers, Field Position, Charlotte doesn’t beat Charlotte) has been the guideline of spring and summer camp. I’m almost certain Loggains (and every other first-year coach in America) is preaching something similar down the road in Boone, though most likely through a different acronym or coach-ism. Limiting turnovers means keeping the ball out of defenders’ hands by limiting high-risk throws and preaching ball security to running backs and wide receivers. Conner Harrell, recently named Charlotte’s starting quarterback, has fast legs and enough experience with option play that I don’t think he’ll be making many risky decisions. He should stick to throws he is comfortable with, and if he doesn’t see things opening up downfield, tuck it and run. AJ Swann is a more traditional pocket-passer, but he knows how to evade pressure and throw on the run (I’m sure he learned quickly, playing at Vanderbilt), so don’t think he’ll be a statue in the middle of the field. Charlotte gets the nod at offensive line, if just barely. I don’t think either will perform superbly, as both are working in a combo of existing talent and new pieces, but Charlotte returns RS senior Jonny King at the center spot, arguably the most important piece, especially in an option-heavy offense. Each team will be starting over on offense. Charlotte does return one starter at wide receiver, Sean Brown. No other starting skill players who scored a touchdown return this season. Due to Kanye Roberts’ injury, App State returns no starters at the skill position. Strangely enough, both teams will be trotting a 4-2-5 for the first time as well. The X-factor for these defenses will be how that star/jack position performs. That floating player is the hinge of the defense, coming in to stop the run as well as being athletic enough on the back end to be reliable in coverage. I like Jaylon Johnson, Jr. for this spot. He’s big enough to stop the run, 6’4, 250, who led NMCC in total tackles, QB hurries, TFLs, and sacks. This will be more vital, at least in week 1, than making plays over the top.
I’ve already stated I think this game will be low scoring. Both teams are trotting out new skill corps, focusing on preventing turnovers, and keeping the playbooks limited for conference play. If I were forced to make a score prediction. I think either team is capable of winning this game, but neither team has the firepower to run away with it. Something tells me that if I pick App State to win the first game of the season, I will see a steeeeeeep drop off in clicks, so I’m laying it down on the line.
24-21 Charlotte. Charlotte +6.5, and take the under, for the reasons I’ve mentioned. Most places have it listed now at o/u 50.5.
Benson, this is the Duke’s Mayo Kickoff. You don’t have any hard and fast opinions on mayonnaise, do you?
I’m so glad you asked. I have hard and fast opinions on all sorts of small things, mayo included. Personally, I think the taste of mayo is abysmal. I don’t enjoy it as a flavor on sandwiches or as a condiment. Mayo is utilitarian. It’s about as tasty as the mortar you’d use to lay the block in a foundation. You might as well put concrete on your tomato sandwiches. Put it in recipes as a binder or a thickening agent, not as an added flavor. As someone who doesn’t eat mayo, I don’t have a take on the mayo wars, but I’m happy to report we are a Duke’s Mayo household, thanks to my wife’s loyalties. Miracle Whip be damned!
Here’s a secret: instead of butter, use mayo as the fat for your grilled cheese. It browns better than butter because of a slightly higher smoke point, and offers a different flavor than plain butter.
That’s all from me today. I’ve laid out Charlotte’s path to victory this Friday night. I’ll be in the press box, taking notes to review on Monday. Pre-game, I’ll be making my way around the stadium, handing out stickers. If we’ve interacted in-person or online, say “hi” and ask for a sticker! Otherwise, this will be back in your inbox Monday morning, either bragging about how right I was or explaining things away.